赣江源头流域植被变化的水文响应模拟研究

应用2个分布式水文模型（SWAT和Topmodel模型），对赣江流域的源头--梅江流域20年内的植被变化所造成的生态水文响应做出了模拟研究。根据2个模型不同的特点，设计了不同的模拟方案，使用SWAT模型模拟径流量的变化，Topmodel模型模拟汇流过程的变化。模拟得到的结果是：排除研究时间段内流域气候变化的影响，仅变换流域下垫面的属性，植被的变化对流域水文特征产生了明显影响，在整个梅江流域的范围内，2000年的年径流总量比1987年增加了146%；在其子流域--琴江流域，1995~2000年的7次洪峰峰值径流出现时间比1987年延迟，峰值径流量减少约5%。这说明从上世纪80年代开始在该流域内进行的植树造林和国土整治工作,即江西省“山江湖工程”，对流域的生态健康具有良好的回馈效应。     

Evaluating Alternative Strategies for Minimizing Unintended Fitness Consequences of Cultured Individuals on Wild Populations

Artificial propagation strategies often incur selection in captivity that leads to traits that are maladaptive in the wild. For propagation programs focused on production rather than demographic contribution to wild populations, effects on wild populations can occur through unintentional escapement or the need to release individuals into natural environments for part of their life cycle. In this case, 2 alternative management strategies might reduce unintended fitness consequences on natural populations: (1) reduce selection in captivity as much as possible to reduce fitness load (keep them similar), or (2) breed a separate population to reduce captive‐wild interactions as much as possible (make them different). We quantitatively evaluate these 2 strategies with a coupled demographic–genetic model based on Pacific salmon hatcheries that incorporates a variety of relevant processes and dynamics: selection in the hatchery relative to the wild, assortative mating based on the trait under selection, and different life cycle arrangements in terms of hatchery release, density dependence, natural selection, and reproduction. Model results indicate that, if natural selection only occurs between reproduction and captive release, the similar strategy performs better. However, if natural selection occurs between captive release and reproduction, the different and similar strategies present viable alternatives to reducing unintended fitness consequences because of the greater opportunity to purge maladaptive individuals. In this case, the appropriate approach depends on the feasibility of each strategy and the demographic goal (e.g., increasing natural abundance, or ensuring that a high proportion of natural spawners are naturally produced). In addition, the fitness effects of hatchery release are much greater if hatchery release occurs before (vs. after) density‐dependent interactions. Given the logistical challenges to achieving both the similar and different strategies, evaluation of not just the preferred strategy but also the consequences of failing to achieve the desired target is critical. Evaluación de Estrategias Alternativas para Minimizar las Consecuencias No Inesperadas en la Adecuación de Individuos Criados en Cautiverio sobre Poblaciones Silvestres     

A traffic safety evaluation of California's traffic violator school citation dismissal policy

Introduction

This study evaluated California's traffic violator school (TVS) citation dismissal policy.

Method

This study identified and compared two large samples of drivers either completing a TVS (N = 210,015) or convicted of a traffic citation (N = 168,563).

Results

Prior to adjudication, the TVS group had characteristics (e.g., lower prior conviction rate and smaller proportion of males) that were predictive of a lower subsequent crash risk. However, the TVS group exhibited significantly more crashes than did the convicted group in the subsequent one-year period. The difference (4.83%) increased to 10% after adjusting for the more favorable characteristics of the TVS group. The TVS group also had a higher adjusted subsequent crash rate at each prior driver record entry level, reflecting a loss in the general and specific deterrence of the non-conviction masked status of TVS dismissed citations. It was reported that the TVS dismissal policy results in approximately 12,300 additional crashes annually with economic costs of approximately $398,000,000.

Conclusions

The avoidance of licensing actions resulting from the dismissal policy assists in explaining why the driving public is exposed to an increased crash risk. A number of recommendations are offered to reduce the negative traffic safety impact of the TVS citation dismissal policy.     

Measuring and Monitoring Illegal Use of Natural Resources

Abstract: Illegal use of natural resources is a threat to biodiversity globally, but research on illegal activities has methodological challenges. We examined 100 studies that empirically identify targeted resources, techniques used to procure resources illegally, locations of illegal activities, characteristics of typical violators, incentives driving illegal use of resources, magnitude of the problem of illegal use (e.g., quantities used), or frequency of illegal activity. We based our evaluation of the methods used in these studies on their ability to provide these empirical data, relative labor demands, training and technology requirements, and levels of uncontrollable bias. We evaluated eight different methods: law‐enforcement records, indirect observation, self‐reporting, direct observation, direct questioning, randomized response technique (a survey method designed to improve accuracy of responses to sensitive questions), forensics, and modeling. Different situations favored different methods, each with distinct advantages and limitations. Six context‐specific factors—location of resource use (in situ vs. ex situ), budget, technology and training capacity, ease of detection of illegal activity, scope of illegal activity (limited vs. widespread), and researchers’ willingness to accept bias in results—help narrow the choice of methods. Several methodological concerns applied to any study of illegal resource use: regular monitoring can detect trends; modeling can incorporate sampling error and data uncertainties; researchers must manage levels of bias that vary between methods; triangulation of results from multiple methods can improve accuracy. No method is a panacea, but a combination of techniques can help address the lack of data on illegal activity. Researchers empirically compared results from different methods in only four studies, and no one has compared more than two methods simultaneously. Conservation would benefit from more research focused on: methods comparisons that include cost effectiveness, time efficiency, and statistical rigor; unique applications of the eight techniques currently in use; and testing of new methods.     

Infill McMansions: Style and the psychophysics of size

The number and size of infill oversized houses, or McMansions, has increased in the U.S. and the world. To maintain desirable neighborhood appearances, communities should know what constitutes “too big.” This paper reports six studies that used color simulations of blocks of houses to examine compatibility and visual appeal in relation to attributes of the infill house and its context. Following psychophysical findings, the relative size of the infill house should have larger effects on response than its actual size. The studies confirmed that the infill ratio had more weight than size for perceived compatibility. Compatibility did not always translate into visual appeal. For visual appeal, infill style had larger effects than did size or size ratio, height had larger effects than width, and, for larger sizes and ratios, infill ratio had larger effects than actual size. To maintain visual quality in relation to infill houses, communities should first seek an architecturally compatible style, and then try to control its relative size (the infill façade area). Tests of responses to real infill houses can show how well these findings generalize.     

中国环境法治建设的成就及建议

回顾了中国改革开放三十年来环境法治建设取得的主要成就，并对我国环境立法、环境执法、环境司法和理论研究方面提出了建议。     

环境行政执法工作中存在的问题及对策分析

近年来，我国虽然不断加大环境执法的力度，但由于在立法、体制、机制与执法监管能力等方面存在的弊端，执法效果不显著，这在一定程度上影响了环保法制建设的进程，降低了环保部门行政执法的能力。本文针对现实障碍，提出了尽快修订和完善法律体系，完善环境管理体制，扩大执法的权限，提高环境执法及应急能力等相应对策。     

中国工业能源消耗结构演变实证研究

中国是能源消耗大国,经济正处在转型时期,产业结构变化是否引起能耗结构变化是一个备受关注而又长期有争议的问题。一种观点认为能源消耗会随着产业结构升级而下降,另一种观点认为能源消耗会保持相对稳定,不受经济发展阶段的影响,确定两者之间的关系,对中国制定能源发展战略和有效利用能源有重要意义。本文用能源消耗结构变动系数方法,分析了1995-2007年工业能源消耗结构和结构的演变,发现多数产业能源消耗结构并没有变化,少数产业能耗比例下降或者上升,个别产业对能源消耗转变的情况。要降低能源消耗,必须降低能源消耗的总水平,同时提供能源利用效率。相应的对策是对高能耗产业进行技术改造,控制重点高能耗产业的规模和能源利用效率,能有效减少能源消耗。解决能源供需关系的政策建议是要加快重点耗能产业的技术更新,降低高能耗产业的能源消耗。进行能源价格改革,促进能源的节约和有效利用。开发新能源,减轻对传统能源的依赖。调整产品出口结构,减少高能耗产品的出口。     

Spatial Organization Mechanism of Aircraft Manufacturing

Unquestionably, aircraft industry plays an important part in both economy and security of a nation. However, few of articles have dealt with the spatial development of this industry sector. The purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics of agglomeration and diffusion of aircraft industry.In a historical view, with some spatial analysis methods, this research discusses the characteristics and patterns of aircraft industry's spatial organization and evolution, globally, nationally and regionally respectively. We find out there is a 'Matthew effect' in aircraft industry of the world, and the spatial evolution of the industry is consistent with the nation's industrialization process. Then, it concludes that the main agglomeration forces consist of capital, talents, technology and cluster's advantages, and the main diffusion forces include comparative advantages, cost and risk sharing, emerging markets, development policy for backward regions and military requirements. All the factors can be divided into market forces making the spatial development of aircraft industry normal and non-market forces making that irregular. In particular, lessons from the USA and France are expected to be conducive to the rise of China's aircraft industry in the future.     

丝绸之路经济带资源环境成本及生态负荷强度的时空演变分析

为了科学地评价丝绸之路经济带生态系统对经济与社会发展的服务支撑能力,本研究引入生态系统服务理论,构建资源环境成本及绿色GDP核算、生态负荷强度模型,计算出丝绸之路经济带辐射国家2005—2012年的资源环境成本、生态负荷强度,并在此基础上利用探索性空间数据分析方法,对2005年以来丝绸之路经济带的生态负荷强度随时间演变的趋势及其空间分布特征进行分析和探讨(数据获取难易程度,仅分析了部分带内国家)。结果表明:在研究时段内,带内国家或地区的资源环境成本由2005年的675.02×108元攀升至1 178.51×108元(2005年可比价),生态负荷强度由0.3369下降到0.2307;丝绸之路经济带生态负荷强度呈现出由欧洲经济圈向中国西北地区集聚的空间分布特征,其中中亚及中国西北地区为高-高集聚区、欧洲经济圈为低-低集聚区;这种西、东集聚现象的显著性在研究时段内逐渐减弱,且区域生态效益或经济效益持续向周边溢出。